1
Establish the base rate
The tool draws from 240+ documented cases in the same category and shows what percentage of similar official claims were confirmed false within 5 years.
A PRIVATE INSTRUMENT
What If You're Right?
A private calibration instrument for the moment you suspect the official story is wrong — but cannot tell if you are paranoid or perceptive.
Examples:
Runs in your browser. No account. No logs. Your claim never leaves this device.
How the calibration works
Five steps. Your input controls the pacing. The framework is designed to be uncomfortable for everyone — including you.
2
Match historical tells
Three matched cases are surfaced — Soviet grain in 1932, US fuel in 1973, Venezuela in 2017 for resource claims — each with a one-line outcome.
3
Run your diagnostic checklist
Seven category-specific tells appear as toggleable rows. You check the ones you have personally observed. The tool does not assume.
4
Compute the cost asymmetry
Two free-text inputs: the cost of being wrong if it IS denial, and the cost of being wrong if it is NOT. A visual bar shows which direction is more expensive.
5
Receive the posture
A 4-line calibrated output: base rate, tells observed, cost asymmetry ratio, recommended posture — plus 3 free verification steps for the next 24 hours.
Run a claim through it
The interactive core. Your input. Your observations. Your browser. Nothing is sent anywhere.
What happened last time?
Six rows from a static library of 240+ documented cases spanning 1920–present.
Six rows from a static library of 240+ documented cases spanning 1920–present. The widget above draws from this same library when you run a claim.
Era
Claim
Outcome
The diagnostic tells, in plain language
Six structural patterns. Each one has appeared in dozens of documented cases. Click any card to see a historical example.
Things you might be wondering
Honest answers, in order of how likely you are to ask them.
No. It is a calibration instrument. The output is a posture range based on base rates and your own observations — not a truth claim, not a verdict. If your tells are weak and the base rate favors official claims being right, the tool will tell you to wait. The framework has no ideology. It is designed to be uncomfortable for everyone, including you.
Bookmarked. The next claim that bothers you will come.
This is a private instrument, not a publication. It does not publish verdicts. It does not rank sources. It does not require an account. It runs on a static library of historical patterns and your own judgment.
240+
Documented cases in the static library
4
Languages supported
72%
Base rate confirmations within 5 years
6
Cited historical pattern categories
- Bookmarkable
- Works offline once loaded
- Lives in 4 languages: EN · RU · ES · 中文
The next official story that does not add up — there will be one — load this page and run it. The framework will be here. The library will be here. Your privacy will be here. Save this URL. Use it again. Tell one person who needs it.